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The bane of biases: I knew it and it happened because of what happened before it.


“Post hoc, ergo propter hoc” and confirmation bias are two distinct yet interrelated cognitive errors that can lead to faulty reasoning.


‘Post Hoc, Ergo Propter Hoc’ is a Latin phrase meaning ‘after this, therefore because of this.’


It’s a logical fallacy that occurs when someone assumes that because one event happened after another, the first event must have caused the second.


This type of reasoning often leads to incorrect conclusions, mistaking correlation for causation based purely on sequence.


Confirmation Bias is the tendency to favour information that confirms one’s preexisting beliefs while disregarding or undervaluing information that challenges those beliefs. For instance, if someone believes that one brand of car is superior, they may focus on stories about that brand’s reliability while ignoring reports of issues, selectively interpreting information to fit their viewpoint.
 

The growth of social


Media bubbles is due to a combination of motivated consumption of content driven by confirmation bias and the algorithm’s ability to do this kind of content propagation presumptively and proactively.


These two biases can often work together and create a cycle of misinterpretation, where assumptions are reinforced without critical examination, ultimately leading to stronger but potentially inaccurate beliefs.


Recognizing these biases helps foster more objective, evidence-based decision-making.


The converse is an even worse situation which is ‘analysis paralysis’.


It can hinder effective marketing for several reasons:


When marketers spend excessive time analyzing data, it can lead to significant delays in launching campaigns or implementing changes. Marketing needs to be agile, especially in today’s fast-moving environment, and over-analysis can mean missed opportunities and lost relevance.


Losing focus on the big picture by diving too deep into minute details can make marketers lose sight of broader objectives and strategic goals. Over-analysis can shift focus toward optimizing small metrics that may not significantly impact the campaign’s effectiveness. Because you may imagine a causation, you end up dealing with inconsequential minutiae.


The cost of over-analysis can outweigh its benefits, draining resources that could be more effectively applied elsewhere in the marketing process.


There is a preference to “optimize” every detail based on minor data insights, leading to overly complex and micromanaged campaigns. This can result in losing the core message or diluting the brand’s voice, making the campaign confusing or less authentic.


Data-driven decisions are directionally essential, but over-reliance on data can stifle creativity and intuition—two critical elements in marketing.


Innovative campaigns often come from bold ideas rather than incremental optimizations, so data should complement, not replace, creativity.


Read More: <a href="https://www.storyboard18.com/digital/simply-speaking-shorts-3-success-fluke-or-formula-44014.htm">Simply Speaking: Shorts #3 - Success - fluke or formula ?</a> 


Analysis doesn’t always reveal or predict consumer behaviour. In fact, data alone can sometimes misrepresent or fail to capture the nuances of consumer behavior, especially when it’s overly segmented or based on short-term metrics.


Over-analysis can lead to campaigns that focus too narrowly on past patterns rather than adapting to real-time, unpredictable shifts in consumer preferences.


Great marketing often blends data insights with gut feeling and market experience. Over-analyzing can crowd out these instincts, resulting in decisions that lack the human touch or miss emotional connection points that data alone can’t predict.


Paralysis by too many choices makes for conflicting insights ultimately leading to indecision and inaction. Instead of making bold moves, workouts can end up in endless discussions and re-evaluations, ultimately stalling progress and reducing the impact of campaigns.


While data is an invaluable tool, effective marketing strikes a balance between data analysis and timely decision-making, creativity, and intuition. Avoiding over-analysis enables marketing teams to remain agile, respond to trends quickly, and maintain a strong, clear brand voice that resonates with audiences.


Shubhranshu Singh is CMO, Tata Motors CVBU. He writes Simply Speaking, a column on Storyboard18. Views expressed are personal.

Simply Speaking: Shorts #5 - The bane of biases

Fencing the ocean: How ego drives internet model decisions that destroy value


Dividers don’t get the digital world. 


Multipliers do.
 

Those who try to replicate offline department style turfs on the internet are idiots. 


Only dimwits will try to fence a part of an ocean. 


As we all know, a funnel is always broadest at the mouth and narrowest at the bottom. That is hardly a deduction of genius. 


Yet such idiots, their rallyists and their patrons will divide or redefine and route to market to create a petty walled garden. Incentivisation of buyers via discounts and channel payout may make this inherently flawed model seem like it is a success even as it is failing! 


Why is a broad cohort important? 


Broad recommendations reduce noise, steering us toward the good stuff. And they're comforting, too. An acknowledged best seller provides a safe, socially vetted bet. The larger the procession, the higher the perceived value of the destination. As a result, we march with the crowd toward the books, songs, restaurants, or gadgets that are top of the charts. As we do so, birds of a feather flock together.
 

Well, it helps to have friends. 
 

When a friend recommends a book, we are more likely to give it a chance. If we hear a new restaurant gave someone stomach cramps, we go elsewhere. If a colleague hates her laptop, we'll make sure to order the competing brand.


In a crowded field of offerings, we ask, we observe, we listen. 


The ‘offline plus online’ model works because the topology of the Web limits our ability to see everything out there. 


The World Wide Web is a scale-free network, dominated by hubs and nodes with a very large number of links. This large-scale topology coexists with numerous small-scale structures that severely limit how much we can explore simply by clicking our way along the links. 


The web (in terms of search ability) is vast yet small. The web (in terms of social connection ) is small yet vast. 


The searches we make are based on page ranking and linkages. These links are directed. 


Read More: <a href="https://www.storyboard18.com/digital/simply-speaking-shorts-3-success-fluke-or-formula-44014.htm">Simply Speaking: Shorts #3 - Success - fluke or formula ?</a> 


Seeing the references in a book will allow you to find the quoted papers. Yet none of these papers could send you to that book, since they do not cite it. 


The lion eats the deer and never the other way around… 


A hotel doesn’t advertise booking methods. A hotel doesn’t publicise standalone menu items. A hotel sells great hospitality or great value or huge convenience or some such larger value. 


Finding the larger value makes you explore the parts. Not the other way around. 


The idiots who make small, independent, fenced models of internet based customer acquisition and sales simply don’t get that. 


They are desperate wallets walking around to buy respect and burn good money in a bonfire of vanity.


Shubhranshu Singh is CMO, Tata Motors CVBU. He writes Simply Speaking, a column on Storyboard18. Views expressed are personal.

Simply Speaking: Shorts #4 - Fencing the Ocean?

The formula for success :Everyone knows of it but no one knows it. 


What makes fashions, rise and fall ? 


Why do some product introductions take off and become grand successes while others - which are equally qualified to succeed - fail miserably ? 


Does society worship the new or revere the old ? Are we excited or scared by the new ?


Is each one of us a unique blend of being neophilic and being neophobic? 


We can only inspect the evidence.


Let us consider some great tech successes :


Google Earth (2005)


The debut of Google Earth allowed people to view any location on Earth from their computers, and access high-definition satellite imagery unimaginable before this technology.


Virtual Reality (VR) Systems


The introduction of virtual reality systems like Oculus Rift enabled users to immerse themselves in virtual worlds and experience scenarios impossible in reality.


Artificial Intelligence and Voice Assistants


The first time Siri, Alexa, or Google Assistant understood and executed voice commands, it sparked great excitement. The idea that devices could not only comprehend human language but also perform actions based on it was groundbreaking.


Blockchain and Cryptocurrencies


Blockchain, the technology behind cryptocurrencies, had the potential to revolutionize not only the financial sector but also numerous other industries.


Shazam 


In 2000, a group of business school graduates and a Stanford PhD named Avery Wang cofounded a cell phone app called Shazam. Their idea was to build a technology that can identify any song in the world with a press of a button and send a text back to the user with the title and artist. The tool turned millions of songs into unique audio maps called spectrograms like creating a digital fingerprint for every song in the world.


Now, Let’s explore noteworthy tech failures:


Sony Betamax (1975)


Despite its technical advantages, Betamax lost the format war in VCRs due to its higher price, shorter recording time, and lack of support from other companies.


Apple Lisa (1983)


A groundbreaking machine featuring a spectacular graphical user interface (GUI) and a mouse, its exorbitant price and underperforming hardware prevented it from achieving success.


IBM PCjr (1984)


IBM’s attempt to enter the home PC market with the PCjr in 1984 failed miserably. Its awkward “chiclet” keyboard, high price, and less-than-ideal performance led to its withdrawal from the market in 1987.


Apple Newton (1993)


Before the iPhone and iPod, there was the Apple Newton. Launched in 1993, it aimed to be the future of personal digital assistants (PDAs). However, the device’s bulkiness, weight, and imperfect handwriting recognition led to its discontinuation in 1998.


Segway (2001)


Launched in 2001, the Segway aimed to revolutionize personal transportation. It was not to be. Production ceased in 2020.


Microsoft Zune (2006)


In 2006, Microsoft attempted to rival Apple’s iPod with the Zune media player. However, poor timing, lack of an intuitive software, and a poor ecosystem led to its discontinuation in 2011.


Google+ (2011)


Google introduced its social networking platform, Google+, in 2011. Despite ambitious efforts, it failed to pose a significant threat to Facebook due to its complexity and a lack of compelling incentives for users to switch.


Google Glass (2013)


Google Glass, launched in 2013, aimed to revolutionize augmented reality but became synonymous with privacy invasion. Ethical concerns and its high price led to the shelving of the consumer version, rendering it a collector’s item.


What is the conclusion ? 


For as long as civilisation has existed, philosophers , sociologists , scientists, and politicians among others have tried to reduce the complexity of this world into a formulaic theory for success. In all likelihood, none exists. The word theory itself comes from “Theo Ria” - merely a way of looking. 


The human condition cannot be pulled in only one direction. Therefore, the future in fashion may well be going back to an earlier fashion. 


The surprise and unpredictability of what works and what doesn’t will remain forever. What we do know for sure is that success depends on acceptance. 


Ultimately, consumer is queen!


Shubhranshu Singh is CMO, Tata Motors CVBU. He writes Simply Speaking, a column on Storyboard18. Views expressed are personal.

Simply Speaking: Shorts #3 - Success - fluke or formula ?

Being a little bit wrong at the right time is better than being entirely right at the wrong time. 

A Cassandra refers to a person who has the ability to foresee or predict future events, but is unable to change or prevent them from happening. 

This term comes from Greek mythology, where Cassandra, the daughter of King Priam of Troy, was granted the gift of prophecy by Apollo. However, when she refused his advances, he cursed her so that no one would believe her predictions. 

Before the Trojan War, Cassandra warned that the Greeks would invade through a wooden horse and sack the city. Her warnings were ignored. Troy was gutted. 

The cruelty of her gift and the tragedy of her malefic fate eventually drove her mad.

Being a Cassandra means possessing a keen insight or intuition about future events. Having the ability and gumption to issue warnings yet being ignored, dismissed, or disbelieved by others.

A Cassandra is often dismissed as a paranoid alarmist. The analysis is dismissed for pessimism.

To have a unique perspective or foresight, but not be taken seriously can make one feel frustrated or powerless especially in the face of impending doom.

Being a Cassandra can be a challenging and isolating experience.

Oracles with no authority, Cassandras keep blabbering about imminent calamities while the world keeps doing its thing. 

Is that so? Does it need to be tragic? 

Think again. In today’s world, to be a Cassandra may be a source of deep power and profit. 

Today - with a connected world of capital and market flows - predicting the future is most profitable exactly when everybody thinks you're wrong.

Knowing - correct and exclusive information - ahead of time is a gold mine when others don’t think so. 

Look for Cassandras - experts, research, or improbable insights. Then check if they are predicting what has been ignored.

The next Cassandra won’t emerge from smarter information management. What data tells us is known to all. It’s the insight that reveals truly. 

When a movie star is a hit, everyone lines up to sign the next movie. This drives up the price and makes the next flop a disaster. Common knowledge erodes return from a good investment. 

Wildlife enthusiasts know of this as the ‘sentinel behaviour’, the ability to detect danger from warning signs before others see it. The behaviour is observed in a variety of animals, such as antelopes. The predator-prey dynamic is such that the pack seems genetically predisposed to respond quickly to the warnings.

In humans, that ability is less well developed. Mankind doesn’t intuitively get probabilistic downsides.

That is precisely why predicting the future is most profitable when everybody thinks you're wrong.

Shubhranshu Singh is CMO, Tata Motors CVBU. He writes Simply Speaking, a column on Storyboard18. Views expressed are personal.

Simply Speaking: Shorts #2 - Cassandra revisited

iPhone: 3 in 1 

A triumph of acumen

A triumph of judgement 

A triumph of courage


Incorrect predictions, unexpected outcomes, faulty prophesies, sheer happenstance and plain misjudgment all these have a place in the history of Big Tech. But above all innovators move markets with confidence.
 
In January 2007, Steve Jobs introduced a revolutionary ‘three in one’ product: 

First - A wide-screen iPod with touch controls. 

Second - A fabulous mobile phone.

Third - A never before Internet communications device.

He called it the iPhone. It was a touch screen, a music player, a phone, and Internet access and more. 

Steve Ballmer - Microsoft CEO - prophesied that there was no chance of it gaining any market share traction given its pricing. 

A market research report by Universal McCann on a big sample of ten thousand respondents declared that it would flop. 

In sum, the consensus was that where multiple available devices were sophisticated and affordable, people would not want one device.

When you could have a great cell phone, a great digital camera and an MP3 player why would you prefer a one size fits all product with no claims to being superior in any of the three? 

Expertise ranks above versatility, this was the view.

But we now know that the iPhone was not a flop. 

Apple’s iPhone business was, within less than a decade, worth more than Microsoft.

In the history of mankind there has never been a more commercially successful device. So much for predictions. 

Apple had spent billions of dollars and five years designing a product that people could not want.

What lessons are to be learned? 

Firstly, innovation needs creativity. 

Secondly, that creativity ought to explore new approaches. 

Finally , all new approaches have inherent risk. 

Risk tolerance is a type of courage, a willingness to confront potential failures. 

Fear and vulnerability can foster a culture of conformity, where people avoid stepping outside their comfort zones. Everyone agrees but they know they have the wrong answer. 

If your plan is simply to survive for the day, week, month or quarter and kick the can forwards you won’t make an iPhone. 

Shubhranshu Singh is CMO, Tata Motors CVBU. He writes Simply Speaking, a column on Storyboard18. Views expressed are personal.

Simply Speaking: Shorts #1 - The "flop" that became a global hit

Nvidia announced a booming revenue report a few days ago and now looks set to become the most valued enterprise on earth. 


Meanwhile, Elon Musk pulled in $ 6 billion and some change for his venture and his claim is that human-level artificial intelligence is coming next year. Elon Musk’s AI startup xAI has completed this striking fundraising achievement at an impressive $24 billion valuation. Backed by Sequoia Capital and Andreessen Horowitz, xAI is poised to potentially vie with AI giant OpenAI for industry dominance.


This is not his first foray into AI since he co-founded Openai, then left after a rupture with Sam Altman. In his view, Tesla is an AI company not an automobile maker.


Big tech can't seem to mouth enough Al-powered hope statements. Everywhere confidence trumps competence. The more the hype the more the eventual harm. 


It sure seems like the ‘Al hype transcontinental flight’ has taken off the long runway whereas in fact it may be already preparing for its eventual descent. 


We need only focus on what AI can do, how well can it do these things and productivity will boost returns? AI ventures must generate returns for stakeholders over the medium term. 


Several glitchy introductions touted as improvements /innovations are revealing that the rate of improvement for Als is slowing. It naturally makes new ,hitherto unimagined, applications rarer still. Building and running AI on scale is a capital guzzler. What is more , competing Al models are coming into the market continuously whereas the earlier ones are not turning any profits. 


On the one hand base AI is getting commoditized but on the other hand staying ahead required spending. 


OpenAI's ChatGPT and Google's Gemini-need more data than any steam engine burnt coal. It has to be fed every moment. 


Having trained on more or less the entire internet, there isn’t much left.


The free, open-source models, like those from Meta and Mistral, are nearly as good as the current leaders. 


If the game shifts from innovative add ons to base cost management, it will need scale of subscription to remain afloat. 

<a href="https://www.storyboard18.com/special-coverage/go-google-or-google-gone-fate-of-search-business-in-judges-hands-shubhranshu-singhs-simply-speaking-32074.htm">Read more: Go Google or Google Gone? Fate of search business in judge’s hands</a>

Al startups have already started to go belly up or selling out to the leaders of the pack. The Wall Street Journal reported on the exit of the Inflection AI’s team to Microsoft whereas the CEO of Stability AI cut away in March. 


A report in the Wall Street Journal quoted Sequoia’s estimate of $50 billion dollar having been spent on chips from Nvidia to train Al in 2023. But the revenue for all players is only $3 billion in revenues.


Google, now offering AI-generated summaries across billions of search results, will eat into its margins since redirection and programmatic advertising is its main source of revenue. 


Clay Shirley said “Revolution doesn't happen when society adopts new tools, it happens when society adopts new behaviors”. I think it applies to this case a well. 


How many corporations have put Al at work in their mainstream functions?


How many license and pay for Al tools for their workforce at large?
 

Being intrigued by Al and bearing a cost to use it and add value are two very different things.


<a href="https://www.storyboard18.com/brand-marketing/excel-that-is-the-powerpoint-of-it-read-shubhranshu-singhs-take-on-how-excel-forever-changed-business-and-marketing-31399.htm">Read more: Excel - That is the powerpoint of it: Read Shubhranshu Singh's take on how Excel forever changed business and marketing</a>


Financial Times reported in December that OpenAI’s revenue was at least $2 billion, and would double by 2025.


But OpenAI has nearly $90 billion market valuation and at some stage the multiples will look hyper optimistic. This is the case for Anthropic having raised 8 billion dollars and being valued at 18 billion. 


Is Al a tool or master? Is it an enhancer of productivity or -in certain classes of jobs- entirely a substitute for human effort?
 

Training people and building habits /workflows remain barriers to the swift adoption of Al.


Al may well be radically disruptive . It may well transform jobs and human lives.


But at its current pace, it is likely to take more fuel and cover less distance. Hence, its viability is a question. A great tool is that which has the least variance of performance. 


I would say it’s hype over hope for now.

Shubhranshu Singh is VP and CMO, Tata Motors CVBU. He writes Simply Speaking, a special column on Storyboard18. Views expressed are personal.

Read More: <a href="https://www.storyboard18.com/brand-makers/i-am-more-hungry-for-artificial-imagination-than-for-artificial-intelligence-shubhranshu-singh-21029.htm">I am more hungry for artificial imagination, than for artificial intelligence: Shubhranshu Singh</a>

AI: Hype or Hope? Asks Shubhranshu Singh in this week's Simply Speaking

One of the most important antitrust cases in history is being considered in a federal court in the US. The Department of Justice has alleged that Google is a monopoly that abuses its power over the internet by striking anticompetitive deals for prime placement of its search engine, while Google contends its dominant market share is the result of a superior product.

It’s the biggest tech antitrust trial ever and comes as its multiplicative impact could go far beyond Google. The fate of Google’s search business is now in the hands of Judge Amit Mehta, as closing arguments concluded in the landmark trial. It will also lead to a direct impact on the app economy.

Google has grown continuously in the past 25 years from its founding. In terms of revenue, valuation and most importantly, active engagement with consumers, it has come to define big.

Google’s problems are bigger than just the antitrust case in discovering its next era as a corporate leader. Googlers have always prided themselves on solving the toughest problems in computer science. The money was more a consequence than the target.

Dominating the internet

The Google brand is its most precious asset. Its many businesses all feed back to the brand. Its culture is deeply identified with the brand.

Therefore, if the big idea would be for Google to become a data fiduciary like a bank is with our money, no amount of encryption will help if the brand is rendered weaker. It has the clout to aspire thus.

Daily, billions of people around the world query on Google Search, email with Gmail or use Google Maps to get to their destination.

The tech giant dominates the internet economy. It has consistently spent more than almost any other group or company on lobbying. Its business expansion has been fuelled also by buying hundreds of firms.

In 2023, it generated $307 billion in revenue, larger than the GDP of Finland, Qatar, and Peru. Its revenue taken as equivalent to GDP would place it on rank 45 in the list of nations.

A ruling against it would limit Google’s search empire. The modus operandi of paying billions to secure prime placement for its search bar on Apple’s iPhones or other web browsers would become a thing of the past.

Potentially, it would be forced to sell off the Chrome browser and open up competition to other search engines.

The fundamental question is whether Google stifled competition and hence harmed consumer interest by becoming the default search engine through deals with phone makers and internet browsers.

The Justice Department case has a reputational impact that Google did not keep its monopoly via great innovation and search, but through dealmaking that effectively made it difficult for any competition search engine to thrive.

Two extenuating circumstances may come to Google’s aid – one that the definition of search itself is broad: it happens on Amazon, Spotify, and TikTok. Secondly, it claims that the literal contracts with Apple, Firefox or Samsung are not actually exclusive, but still render it as a default.

If the ruling is that Google isn’t a monopoly, it will demolish the arguments of the state and many others who say Big Tech has grown too powerful. That will apply in mutant versions to all including Amazon and Apple.

In any case, there is likely to be some injunctive relief in case the ruling restricts itself to the nature of the contracts, and that, going forward, such contracts cannot be entered into.

However, when the state went after Microsoft in an anti-trust investigation, it had tried to break it up. So, potentially the government could ask Google to stop certain practices, direct it to divest businesses, or order its break up into separate entities. Google competitors have accused it of branding its power to suppress competition links to travel, maps, and reviews, among others.

Let’s understand the Google world.

Google has nine products with more than a billion users each.

1. Google search — 4.9 billion users

Google is the world’s most important search engine, and it truly dominates the space, controlling 92 percent of the market, which equates to 4.9 billion people (data from StatCounter and the International Telecommunications Union).

This is the business at the core of the government’s allegations.

Microsoft’s Bing comes in second with a paltry 3 percent. Google is the world’s No. 1 site, with more than 86 billion visits a month, according to internet data provider Similarweb.

Now Google has begun putting AI-generated answer summaries, which are trained on content scraped from the web, at the top of search results for more of its users. That could squeeze publishers who rely on traffic from Google for their survival.

2. Chrome — With 3.4 billion users

Chrome is the world’s most popular web browser. The vast majority of desktop computers and a huge portion of mobile phones have Chrome as the default browser. This is how Google gets the ability to keep its search engine front and centre, but also allows it to track people all over the internet, giving it incredible amounts of granular data on online behaviour, especially when it comes to advertising and e-commerce.

This edged out Microsoft Explorer or Mozilla’s Firefox. Microsoft’s new browser, Edge, is built off a version of Chrome.

3. Android 

More than 3 billion people use smartphones running Google’s Android operating system, the company said in 2021. That is around 70 percent of all the smartphones in the world.

Apple’s iOS is a distant second at 28.5 percent. Android has become the default operating system for most of the world’s phones, hence Google can put its other services, including Search, Maps, YouTube and its app store, in front of billions of people.

4. Google Play Store

Around 2.5 billion people use Google’s version of the app store every month, making it much bigger than Apple’s app store. The Play Store lets Google charge a commission on every app sold as well as get a cut of transactions made through those apps.

Android phones, unlike iPhones, don’t require apps to be downloaded through the official app store, and in China, numerous other app stores exist. Elsewhere, using an Android phone means going through Google to get your apps.

5. YouTube

Google’s online video service is a behemoth in its own right, with 2 billion users, according to the company. YouTube says 500 hours of video are uploaded to YouTube every minute. It’s an entertainment site, quasi social media platform and video archive rolled into one.

If you added the run time of all 454 feature films released in the US in 2022, at an average of two hours per film, you’d get about 900 hours of content. That is less than everything uploaded to YouTube in two minutes.

6. Google Workspace — 3 billion users

Google’s archenemy is Microsoft, and the company has for years worked to compete with Microsoft’s core products — its productivity suite, including Word, Excel and PowerPoint. Though Google still hasn’t dethroned those products, its own tools have grown rapidly over the years, benefiting from being bundled into other Google services such as Gmail.

At the end of 2022, Google said its Workspace apps, which include Docs, Sheets and Google Drive, had more than 3 billion users.

7. Gmail

Google was late to the email arena, where Yahoo, Hotmail and others had exhausted themselves fighting. It offered larger amounts of free storage than its competitors, it quickly began winning over customers with features and ubiquity.

Now, Gmail is the undisputed king of the email world, with 1.8 billion users. Google now makes people pay for storage leading to a huge source of revenue for the company.

Google also makes money from Gmail by placing ads in it. It is in control of the rules that dictate which emails end up in users’ primary inboxes and which are sent to the spam folder.

8. Google Photos

Google’s photo-storage app grew to a billion users just four years after launching in 2015. It benefited from being wrapped into Google Drive and as a default photo-storage tool on Android phones. But the app is hugely popular with iPhone users, too, thanks to Google’s offer of large amounts of free storage.

Now, millions of people pay Google monthly just to preserve the photos they have stored in the tool, providing a significant extra boost to revenue. Google Photos is also a major proving ground for the company’s AI tools.

9. Google Maps

Google was also late to the map game, with rivals like MapQuest already running major businesses when it first came on the scene. But the company gradually took over the space, and now it’s the tool people predominantly use to navigate the real world.

Google crossed a billion monthly users in 2012, and the company’s user base in the space has only grown since then. Even on iPhones, where Apple has tried for years to get people to use its own default maps app, many people still download Google Maps and use it exclusively.

Maps soon turned into a huge reviews site, shaking the businesses of such companies as Yelp and Tripadvisor, and putting Google into competition with a whole different set of companies. Like most of Google’s businesses, Maps is also an advertising platform.

Big Tech’s grip

Google’s parent company Alphabet is an organisation in the middle of momentous change. It is at the centre of the socio-cultural debate on Big Tech. While lawmakers and trustbusters scrutinise abuses of its market dominance in online-search-and-advertising technology, the very same businesses are maturing and not fuelling endless growth. Monopoly or not, could its base effect in revenue and profitability become its bigger headache?

Google argues that the internet is a lot bigger than it is and that companies like Amazon, Netflix, TikTok and OpenAI are all competing with it for people’s time, attention and money.

We are seeing a real focus in Europe and the US in weakening the grip of Big Tech on the economy, especially with reference to the internet.

It’s a very important judgement in the history of brands and businesses.

Watch this space.

Shubhranshu Singh is VP and CMO, Tata Motors CVBU. He writes Simply Speaking, a special column on Storyboard18. Views expressed are personal.

<a href="https://www.storyboard18.com/brand-marketing/excel-that-is-the-powerpoint-of-it-read-shubhranshu-singhs-take-on-how-excel-forever-changed-business-and-marketing-31399.htm">Read more: Excel - That is the powerpoint of it: Read Shubhranshu Singh's take on how Excel forever changed business and marketing</a>

Go Google or Google Gone? Fate of search business in judge’s hands: Shubhranshu Singh's 'Simply Speaking'

If capitalism had its version of Agitprop, its two main heroes would be PowerPoint and Excel.


They would be celebrated as tools that revolutionised and transformed business management. Without a doubt, they have had a massive impact. Whether as carriers of prior information, facilitators of analysis or creators of meta thinking, they established themselves as the ‘always on’ tools especially for those who were set to climb the ladder fast. 


This impact helped create, sustain and grow the mystique of the business mandarin. In myriad ways, they were invaluable to the ‘behind-the-curtain’ players who formed the establishment glue, the grout in the interdepartmental tiles as also to those who did customer facing razzle dazzle. In terms of packaging and distribution - PowerPoint and Excel came to hold sway.


But, are they fit for purpose and has this impact only been positive?


PowerPoint is more fundamentally flawed. It is a poor tool and has made both medium and message shrink. Intrinsically, it isn’t suited for what it is meant to accomplish in terms of clear, engaging, sharp communication. Sharp imagery, a few bullet points and a narrative often trumps thorough analysis and case supporting documentation. It is used indiscriminately for big bold ideas as well as the minutiae. It only follows a sequential, linear narrative. 


Could a general plan battle with PowerPoint inputs? Could an advocate convincingly argue with it in a court of law? Is it telescopic or microscopic in its net effect?


When done differently, it often gives rise to another issue, namely over stuffed presentations. But saying “apologies for a busy slide” is all it takes to brush away the illegible density. 


I have seen multiple slides in one or beastly innovations such as one slide with multiple links that go to other slides only to return to the nominal single slide.


The very ephemeral nature of such an arrayed display - boring or bedazzling - as it may be means that each slide appears for a few seconds before a puzzled, distracted or engaged audience. The etiquette of posing questions together at the end means the ‘peak end effect’ inevitably takes hold. Often, all you remember is the high point and the conclusion.


The celebration of PowerPoint is however a symptom and not the cause. 


Reductive, shorthand summarisation has become the preferred mode for collective discussions. There is not much bandwidth for detailing. An impactful image becomes a substitute for a cogent argument rather than a support for it. I am all for visually attractive, clutter breaking and compelling imagery but must the horse ride the man? Truly, does a picture say more than a thousand words? When the need for quantitative substantiation is felt, numbers march into the cramped space and infographics take pride of place. But it’s self-selection of data that happens most of all. People choose to see what they want to see. 


PowerPoint is a great tool for advocacy but not critical analysis. 

The recipe has become more important than the dish.


There is also the futility of the pre read. PowerPoints are often circulated prior to meetings and distributed far and wide. Hence there is an urge to be armed with additional content to drive specific agendas during meetings. 


A simple litmus test is whether a presentation is self-explanatory without the presenter. I am not disputing the critical role of the narrative, but every presenter wants attention and that leads to message mutation.


The detailing must be to a level of sufficiency. Brevity is the soul of the nitwit.


If you make PowerPoint presentation an end rather than the means, you will end up making a puréed mess of your ideas, and you have no choice in the matter.


Let me now deal with Excel. I believe Excel is the single most transforming element of what has made modern business what it is. It was like a cannon to the ramparts of feudal management. It blew old style marketing and creative industries to bits. 


It all started with the advent of the spreadsheet. This came in the early 1980s shortly after the introduction and widespread adoption of the IBM PC: VisiCalc, followed by Lotus 1-2-3, and then, of course, Microsoft Excel as a part of MS Office. 


Working a spreadsheet made business a malleable reality. It visually gave birth to the bottom line. Change the numbers up and the bottom line changed from red to green. Whereas real business was dealing with frictional ground realities, excel made every scenario a gamed outcome. If it could be on excel, what prevented it from being real on ground? 


‘Go to market’ strategy became subservient to excel. 


Old style business began to look sloppy, wasteful and plain. 


‘Excel men’ derived power from mathematical certainty whereas creative business was messy, loud and chaotic in comparison.


Power shifted towards formality and reserve. Men became cooler than the air conditioning. You counted only if you could be counted to deliver the numbers in the cells.


Financial engineering became the domain of the high-flying manager. Convening rights and allocation of resources got determined via outcomes from the spreadsheet. Excel made effects and countereffects easy to visualise and all fantasies seemed within grasp.


A patina of seriousness was acquired by the excel man. He was seen as wise and careful -someone sober, clinical, precise, and forever ready. He held the cards and didn’t need to show his hand. 


This ex parte advisory had a lugubrious air, implied authority and was blessed with Delphic certainty. It was inherently at conflict with the hopeful, familial charters of old business. 


Excel created a vehicle for defining value. It made the old corps tetchy. But they had no option but to lump it. Any large corporation is a confederacy of noncooperative parts. The excel yoke put everyone in one line. 


For all its intentionality, the ‘excel projection’ gave its controllers a certain degree of ritual deniability. After all they just ran the numbers. If the targets were not achieved, the line managers and operators were to be held accountable. 


With excel power, even the sub-rosa parts of business became a sound and light show - dynamic, dramatic and dangerous. The consumer reality became subservient to higher order lines like technology, supply and cost.
 

Marketing and management now suddenly demanded a different type of temperament. Without the excel seal of approval you were only a poet. 


By the 90s, the old order was being swept away as the millennium melted away into a sunset. Absolute novices, powered with the right to analyse and manipulate numbers—took over unassailable, solid, and essential brands. 


It was a revolution: new against old, analytical stars against storytellers, financial visionaries against business as usual. True or not, that’s how it was framed. Brand building, which used to be an institutionalised, specialized, creative, viscous activity—became everyone’s playing field. 


He who had the excel sheet controlled the dream. Financing something, anything, became the central economic activity.


Whilst the marketing culture at large was being dumbed down, the excel culture was getting smarter, more competitive, oppressive and, adamant in its pursuit of the ‘excel outcomes’.


From being the core of a business, the brand became a great abstraction. Businesses could be broken up, sold in parts, merged and dissolved.


A page of PowerPoint and a sheet of excel was all that mattered. 


Shubhranshu Singh is VP and CMO, Tata Motors CVBU. He writes Simply Speaking, a special column on Storyboard18. Views expressed are personal.


Read More: <a href="https://www.storyboard18.com/brand-makers/i-am-more-hungry-for-artificial-imagination-than-for-artificial-intelligence-shubhranshu-singh-21029.htm">I am more hungry for artificial imagination, than for artificial intelligence: Shubhranshu Singh</a>

Excel - That is the powerpoint of it: Read Shubhranshu Singh's take on how Excel forever changed business and marketing

Everywhere you look, stock markets are ticketing away to new records. The S&P 500 hit an all-time high in January and then vaulted to above 5,000 in February when Nvidia released its solid results. Europe's STOXX 600 l, Japan's Nikkei 225 and the Indian Sensex and Nifty are all at record highs. 

This boom is very significantly based on the assumption that Al will transform the global economy. Businesses the world over are already starting to experiment with Al tools and techniques. It is going to change not merely the ways of working but also the definition for entire industries. 

When the disruption hit business over the past five years, few could have predicted it would unleash innovations as redefining as AI-generative video. We often mistake AI for automation. What does Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) mean? Well, it means different things to different people, but the most important achievement that is causing the ferment is the current generation of advanced AI large language models such as ChatGPT, Bard, LLaMA and Claude. 

These pioneering models take on novel tasks they were not trained for and perform very well. That's why AI and supervised deep learning systems have now graduated to AGI. The key property of generality has already been achieved. The early AI systems were endowed with narrow intelligence able to concentrate on a single task. Their benchmark was attaining human level. MYCIN, only diagnosed and recommended treatment for bacterial infections. SYSTRAN only did machine translation. IBM’s Deep Blue only played chess and so on... 

Later deep neural network models trained with supervised learning such as AlexNet and AlphaGo successfully took on a number of tasks in machine perception and judgment that had long eluded earlier heuristic, rule-based or knowledge-based systems. But emerging applications like OpenAI’s remarkable text-to-video generator Sora can potentially reshape marketing down to its foundations. 

Sora’s uncanny ability to transform simple text into strikingly polished 4K video unlocks new frontiers for brands and agencies to drive engagement and ROI through visually dynamic campaigns personalised at scale. The potential for localised video content across languages, demographics and sectors appears boundless. As consumer attention increasingly shifts to digital video, reducing production barriers promises democratisation for small and large businesses to better compete in an intensely visual age. 

In 2022, the projected global market revenue for online video advertising will already stand at a staggering $75 billion. As India's digital maturity and smartphone adoption continue to accelerate, Sora-like AI video solutions can no longer be ignored by forward-thinking marketers keen to engage this new generation of mobile-first consumers. 

Such flexibility could allow marketers to swiftly generate product demonstrations, concept videos, explainers, advertisements, and other visually immersive content tuned precisely to messaging goals. This includes dynamic personalisation at scale, like showing clothing on varied models or positioning products in customised lifestyle settings. No longer limited by production bottlenecks, marketers can pursue more experimentation and iteration to better the engagement. 

Indian edtech firms, for instance, can leverage Sora to develop personalised and cost-effective educational video content tailored to regional curriculum needs. E-commerce players can minimise product uncertainty by generating virtual try-on videos to engage customers better. Even specialised product categories like jewellery or textiles can showcase intricate details easily ignored in images and text. 

I am not a doomer but a boomer. I feel the river flows only in one direction. Sora does raise valid concerns around copyright, ethics and misinformation, and these need continued vigilance. However, if scaled responsibly, Sora represents a democratising force, levelling the playing field for smaller brands otherwise excluded from sophisticated video campaigns. Just as DIY website builders and email services expanded access decades ago, AI video production can drive greater creativity, diversity and healthy competition across the marketing ecosystem. 

Tapping emerging technologies has always required the courage to envisage new possibilities combined with the wisdom to navigate risks. With careful steering, Sora-like winds can take a marketer on a voyage never conceived. The time for exploration has arrived. 

But as remarkable as Sora may be, we must acknowledge it represents only the earliest glimpses of an AI-driven video frontier still very much in its infancy. While capabilities today focus predominantly on transforming text to video, rapid innovation drives systems towards more interactive, multi-modal interfaces accepting verbal commands and even hand motions as inputs. Imagine marketers developing a storyboard scene-by-scene with verbal or textual instructions only, fluidly bringing product concepts and creative visions to life without extensive production requirements. Systems like Sora hint at a not-too-distant future where video personalisation and iteration can be dictated in real-time by marketers themselves, optimised dynamically for campaign goals. 

Accessibility barriers around professional video production may fall fast. Emerging tools like RunwayML already enable those with zero coding or design experience to train AI models on custom datasets for tailored video generation applications. As synthetic video creation grows more commoditised, expect new crowdsourced marketplaces around stock video elements and datasets to minimise production costs further. 

<a href="https://www.storyboard18.com/watch-listen/media-dialogues-with-storyboard18-ai-and-digital-accelerating-tata-motors-cv-brand-and-business-21131.htm">Watch: Media Dialogues with Storyboard18: AI and digital accelerating Tata Motors CV brand and business</a>

Tactical implementation of ideation could accelerate dramatically, freeing resources towards more strategic messaging experimentation. However, such rapid iteration heightens the risks of perpetuating societal biases if governance does not keep pace. Thoughtful oversight around training, data curation, model evaluation protocols and source transparency remains critical. 

We must also examine concerns around generative video more holistically within broader technology regulation debates. Beyond Sora itself, tensions simmer around legal frameworks struggling to balance free speech, privacy, public safety and innovation in an increasingly complex digital ecosystem. Whatever legislative paths India pursues , will profoundly influence the AI landscape regionally and globally. 

It may benefit policymakers to assess generative video governance within segmented contexts rather than one-size-fits-all decrees. Blanket bans risk overreach that stifles progress and accessibility. More pragmatic guardrails tailored across consumer, commercial and research domains could nurture innovation responsibly. Policy, too, must progress iteratively, evolving dynamically alongside technological change. 

For all the risks, the promise of expanded video creativity and personalisation should not be readily dismissed, especially within a youthful, smartphone-native population like in India. Channelling energies into promoting AI literacy and ethical design principles may better serve the public than reactionary policies rooted in fear. If digital maturation has taught us anything this past decade, possibility scaffolded by commercially viable applications works wonders.

Shubhranshu Singh is the chief marketing officer of Tata Motors CVBU. Views expressed are personal.

Simply Speaking: Importance of AI literacy over reactionary policies rooted in fear

In the theatre of modern commerce, the twin forces of generative AI and Generation Z are not merely actors; they are the scriptwriters, redrawing the boundaries of consumer engagement and corporate strategy. As businesses acclimate to this new order, a geopolitical dimension unfurls, adding layers of complexity to the narrative. This is a tale of innovation, consumer consciousness, and the relentless march of nations vying for digital supremacy — a tale in which India is poised to play a pivotal role.


The ethos of GenZ — a demographic sculpted by the internet's omnipresence and the digital age's promises — is global in its essence yet nuanced in its local expressions. These young consumers, wielding substantial influence over market trends and brand trajectories, are now interwoven into the broader tapestry of international relations and corporate diplomacy. Their demands for authenticity, social responsibility, and digital fluency compel brands to navigate a world where cultural acumen is as crucial as technological expertise.


Generative AI, once the domain of science fiction, now sits at the fulcrum of a new world order. Its content creation and data analysis prowess has ushered in an era of personalised consumer experiences at a previously unimaginable scale. However, this technological leap forward is not without its geopolitical implications. The race for AI dominance has become a proxy for national power, with data sovereignty and technological innovation being central to nations' strategic interests.

India's Strategic Play

With its tech-savvy population and robust digital infrastructure, India stands at an intriguing crossroads. The nation's commitment to digital growth, exemplified by initiatives like 'Digital India', has catalysed its emergence as a crucible for AI development and application. Indian brands and businesses, therefore, find themselves at the heart of a confluence of global technological trends and a vibrant, diverse consumer base that is quintessentially GenZ.


The country's geopolitical stance is characterised by a push for self-reliance and a quest for technological autonomy. In the realm of AI, this translates into fostering indigenous innovation while navigating the complex web of international data governance and cross-border digital policies. Indian companies are increasingly conscious of the global narratives shaping consumer expectations, which now include the ethical use of AI, the protection of data privacy, and the fostering of digital ecosystems that can thrive amid international competition and cooperation.


The substance of this dialogue is critical. For instance, India's stance on data localisation — mandating that data be stored within national borders — is a stance that reflects a deeper assertion of sovereignty in the digital space. It's a move that resonates with a global trend towards data nationalism but also raises important questions about the balance between open digital markets and the protection of citizen data.


In this geopolitical shuffle, the role of brands extends beyond mere commercial interests; they become envoys of cultural exchange and technological prowess. The corporate strategies of Indian brands are not just about capturing market share but also about showcasing India's unique blend of technological ambition and cultural richness to a global audience. 


India Vs. Others 

The recent agreement on AI development reached by 28 countries at the Bletchley Park summit showcases how India is aligning itself with international efforts to manage AI risks responsibly. According to the agreement, countries including the US, Australia, China, and members of the EU have recognised the need for international cooperation to ensure AI is developed and used in safe and beneficial ways for the global community.


For India, this global dialogue is particularly timely. The country plans to propose a broad framework for the regulation of AI at the December summit, aiming to secure agreement from all signatories of the Bletchley Declaration and the Global Partnership on AI (GPAI).


In contrast, the EU has taken a more cautious approach with the proposed AI Act, focusing on risk assessment and user safety. At the same time, the US has solicited industry input to manage AI risks, and China has emphasised state control in alignment with national security objectives. 


As we look towards a future where digital frontiers are continuously redefined, the interplay between generative AI, the digitally-native GenZ, and the geopolitical ambitions of nations like India presents a rich mosaic of challenges and opportunities. For brands, this is an era of corporate statesmanship, where their actions must resonate within the marketplaces they serve and the global stage they inhabit.


Brands that will thrive in this complex interstice are those that recognise their role in a larger narrative — one that encompasses the aspirations of a young generation and the strategic imperatives of their home nations. It is a call to action for brands to become not just purveyors of products but ambassadors of innovation, ethics, and cultural empathy.


As we stand at the precipice of a new era, where the confluence of generative AI, an empowered GenZ, and a reshaping global stage beckon, the narrative is far from complete. This is not an end but a beginning — a prologue to a story where technology and humanity intertwine in unprecedented ways. 


With its vibrant tapestry of culture and technology, India is not just a participant but a potential protagonist in this unfolding saga. The question now is how brands will adapt and how they will lead in crafting a future where innovation, ethics, and global harmony coalesce. The stage is set, the actors are ready, and the world eagerly awaits the next act in this transformative play of digital evolution.

Shubhranshu Singh is the chief marketing officer, Tata Motors. He writes Simply Speaking, a weekly column on Storyboard18. Views expressed are personal.

SIMPLY SPEAKING